Revisiting Ancient Forests: Insights From the Mid-Pliocene to Predict Future Climate Impacts
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F25%3A101927" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/25:101927 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.15128" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.15128</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jbi.15128" target="_blank" >10.1111/jbi.15128</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Revisiting Ancient Forests: Insights From the Mid-Pliocene to Predict Future Climate Impacts
Original language description
Aim: The potential analogues in Earth's past may hold insight on how modern European forests will react to different levels of future warming. There is a lack of comparison between future warming and its most recent climate analogue 3.25 million years ago during the mid-Piacenzian warm period. We have attempted to fill this knowledge gap by modelling the zonation of woody plant communities during the mid-Pliocene and comparing it with their current distribution and predictions of their future distribution. Location: Europe. Time Period3.25-3 million years ago, 1970-2000, and 2081-2100. Taxon: European tree species. Methods: In this study, we selected 15 European tree species from three main European forest ecosystems: Mediterranean, temperate and boreal species that had ancestors present in Europe during the mPWP. Then we applied an ensemble model using climatic data from the mPWP, modern and two future climate scenarios. In order to compare the models, we assessed the overlapped area as well as Dutilleul's modified t-test in order to assess the spatial similarities in forest communities distribution between the mPWP and future warming. Results: Our results showed that there is a clear northern trend in the northward shift of forest communities under all warming scenarios. Across all species, there is a clear drop in suitable area with the exception of Mediterranean species, where suitable area increased in all warm scenarios. When comparing the mPWP with future warming, there is evidence to support that RCP 4.5 will potentially exhibit similar conditions, while RCP 8.5 may result in highly novel habitats. Main Conclusions: Although mid-Pliocene conditions are more analogous to the RCP 4.5, it raises an urgent ecological concern for adaptive forest management. Increasing temperatures and uncertain precipitation patterns have the potential to aid the expansion of Mediterranean forest communities while fragmenting temperate and boreal forest communities throughout central Europe.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10618 - Ecology
Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/GA23-07716S" target="_blank" >GA23-07716S: Linking performance trade-off with modern coexistence theory and functional trait approach</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Others
Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Journal of Biogeography
ISSN
0305-0270
e-ISSN
0305-0270
Volume of the periodical
52
Issue of the periodical within the volume
6
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
14
Pages from-to
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UT code for WoS article
001454337800001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-105001794376