Clustering numerical weather forecasts to obtain statistical prediction intervals
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27240%2F14%3A86096964" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27240/14:86096964 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/00216275:25530/14:39898701
Result on the web
<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1383/epdf" target="_blank" >http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1383/epdf</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1383" target="_blank" >10.1002/met.1383</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Clustering numerical weather forecasts to obtain statistical prediction intervals
Original language description
The numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs are point deterministic values arranged on a three-dimensional grid. However, there is always some level of uncertainty in the prediction. Many applications would benefit from provision of relevant uncertainty information along with the forecast. A common means of formulating and communicating forecast uncertainty are prediction intervals (PI). In this study, various methods for modelling the uncertainty of NWP forecasts are investigated and PIs provided for predictions accordingly. In particular, the interest is in analysing the historical performance of the system as a valuable source of information for uncertainty analysis. Various clustering algorithms are employed to group the performance records as the first step of the PI determination process. In the second step, a range of methods are used to fit appropriate probability distributions to errors of each cluster. As a result, PIs can be computed dynamically depending on the for
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
IN - Informatics
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/EE2.3.30.0058" target="_blank" >EE2.3.30.0058: Development of Research Teams at the University of Pardubice</a><br>
Continuities
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Others
Publication year
2014
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Meteorological Applications
ISSN
1350-4827
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
21
Issue of the periodical within the volume
3
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
14
Pages from-to
605-618
UT code for WoS article
000339954700016
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-84904763819