Alternative roles of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption: Evidence from European countries

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27510%2F16%3A86100067" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27510/16:86100067 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7327/cerei.2016.12.02" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.7327/cerei.2016.12.02</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7327/cerei.2016.12.02" target="_blank" >10.7327/cerei.2016.12.02</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Alternative roles of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption: Evidence from European countries
Original language description
The predictive power of consumer sentiment indicator to forecast consumption spending was already accepted, but the theoretical explanation for that is still vague. Moreover, some of the studies showed that after adding other macroeconomic variables in forecasting model, the predictive power of consumer confidence indicator becomes limited. This paper proposes to distinguish between two predictive channels of confidence data for consumption spending. The first, income channel, should represent the ability of confidence data to predict an expected future income of a consumer. The predictive power of confidence through the second channel should serve for the approximation of consumers' intentions to consume. According to this distinction, I propose to use the data from initial survey questions separately rather than one composite consumer confidence indicator. This way, the predictive power of confidence data could be more clarified. I have used the data from the European Commission Consumer Survey and on the sample of 27 countries confirmed that by using separate confidence data rather than composite indicator, a higher predictive power of confidence data could be achieved.
Czech name
—
Czech description
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Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
—

Project
<a href="/en/project/EE2.3.20.0296" target="_blank" >EE2.3.20.0296: Research team for modelling of economic and financial processes at VSB-TU Ostrava</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year
2016
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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