INDICATORS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON THE BASIS OF MOVING AVERAGES AS PROGNOSTIC METHODS IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27510%2F18%3A10241042" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27510/18:10241042 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7441/joc.2018.04.07" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.7441/joc.2018.04.07</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7441/joc.2018.04.07" target="_blank" >10.7441/joc.2018.04.07</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

INDICATORS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON THE BASIS OF MOVING AVERAGES AS PROGNOSTIC METHODS IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Original language description

Competitiveness is an important factor in a company&apos;s ability to achieve success, and proper forecasting can be a fundamental source of competitive advantage for an enterprise. The aim of this study is to show the possibility of using technical analysis indicators in forecasting prices in the food industry in comparison with classical methods, namely exponential smoothing. In the food industry, competitiveness is also a key element of business. Competitiveness, however, requires not only a thorough historical analysis not only of but also forecasting. Forecasting methods are very complex and are often prevented from wider application to increase competitiveness. The indicators of technical analysis meet the criteria of simplicity and can therefore be a good way to increase competitiveness through proper forecasting. In this manuscript, the use of simple forecasting tools is confirmed for the period of 2009-2018. The analysis was completed using data on the main raw materials of the food industry, namely wheat food, wheat forage, malting barley, milk, apples and potatoes, for which monthly data from January 2009 to February 2018 was collected. The data file has been analyzed and modified, with an analysis of indicators based on rolling averages selected. The indicators were compared using exponential smoothing forecasting. Accuracy RMSE and MAPE criteria were selected. The results show that, while the use of indicators as a default setting is inappropriate in business economics, their accuracy is not as strong as the accuracy provided by exponential smoothing. In the following section, the models were optimized. With these optimized parameters, technical indicators seem to be an appropriate tool.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50204 - Business and management

Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2018

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Journal of Competitiveness

ISSN

1804-171X

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

10

Issue of the periodical within the volume

4

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

18

Pages from-to

102-119

UT code for WoS article

000453444200008

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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