Time-dependent risk modelling of accidental events and responses in process industries
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27740%2F13%3A86083773" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27740/13:86083773 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Time-dependent risk modelling of accidental events and responses in process industries
Original language description
Risk to safety of personnel in process industries is normally modelled in the application of Event Trees, where the risk is defined as a product of event frequency and its consequences. This method is steady state whilst the actual event is time dependent, comprising, for a gas release, as for example, the size of gas cloud being released, probabilities of ignition, fire or explosion, fatality, escalation to new releases and fire and/or explosion, and the probability of fatality, all varying with time.This paper presents a method whereby the time-dependent events and the time-dependent probability of fatality are modelled by means of the two methods: direct Monte Carlo simulation method on one hand and analytical computation method based on modeling of scenarios by the use of directed acyclic graph (DAG) on the other hand. Using these methods the modeled scenarios change with relevant probabilities at defined times to configurations with appropriate probabilities of fatalities. The pa
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
D - Article in proceedings
CEP classification
BB - Applied statistics, operational research
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/ED1.1.00%2F02.0070" target="_blank" >ED1.1.00/02.0070: IT4Innovations Centre of Excellence</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Others
Publication year
2013
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Article name in the collection
11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012
ISBN
978-1-62276-436-5
ISSN
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e-ISSN
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Number of pages
10
Pages from-to
2056-2065
Publisher name
Curran Associates
Place of publication
Down
Event location
Helsinky
Event date
Jun 25, 2012
Type of event by nationality
WRD - Celosvětová akce
UT code for WoS article
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