Experiments with Fuzzy Methods for Forecasting Time Series as Alternatives to Classical Method

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989592%3A15210%2F21%3A73611257" target="_blank" >RIV/61989592:15210/21:73611257 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://www.mdpi.com/journal/mathematics" target="_blank" >http://www.mdpi.com/journal/mathematics</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9192517" target="_blank" >10.3390/math9192517</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Experiments with Fuzzy Methods for Forecasting Time Series as Alternatives to Classical Method

Original language description

Even though forecasting methods have advanced in the last few decades, economists still face a simple question: which prediction method gives the most accurate results? Econometric forecasting methods can deal with different types of time series and have good results, but in specific cases, they may fail to provide accurate predictions. Recently, new techniques borrowed from the soft computing area were adopted for economic forecasting. Starting from the importance of economic forecasts, we present an experimental study where we compared the accuracy of some of the most used econometric forecasting methods, namely the simple exponential smoothing, Holt and ARIMA methods, with that of two new methods based on the concept of fuzzy time series. We used a set of time series extracted from the Eurostat database and the R software for all data processing. The results of the experiments show that despite not being fully superior to the econometric techniques, the fuzzy time series forecasting methods could be considered as an alternative for specific time series.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2021

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Mathematics

ISSN

2227-7390

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

9

Issue of the periodical within the volume

19

Country of publishing house

CH - SWITZERLAND

Number of pages

9

Pages from-to

17-25

UT code for WoS article

000731452600001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85116681946