What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale land use, and what not?

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43210%2F06%3A00102903" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43210/06:00102903 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale land use, and what not?
Original language description
Given scenarios describing future climates and socio-techno-economics, this study estimates the consequences for agricultural land use, combining models of crop growth and farm decision making to predict profitability over the whole of Europe, driven solely by soil and climate at each location. Each location is then classified by its profitability as intensive or extensive agriculture or not suitable for agriculture. The main effects of both climate and socio-economics were in the agriculturally marginal areas of Europe. The results showed the effect of different climates is relatively small, whereas there are large variations when economic scenarios are included. Only Finland's agricultural area significantly responds to climate by increasing at the expense of forests in several scenarios. Several locations show more difference due to climate model (PCM versus HadCM3) than emission scenario, because of large differences in predicted precipitation, notably the Ardennes switching to ara
Czech name
Co může odhalit scénářové modelování o budoucím využitím krajiny na evropské úrovni a co ne?
Czech description
Detailní popis je součástí anglického abstraktu.

Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
GC - Plant growing, crop rotation
OECD FORD branch
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Project
<a href="/en/project/GP521%2F03%2FD059" target="_blank" >GP521/03/D059: Application of the spatial analysis method for risk assessment and overview of adaptation strategies in spring barley production under changed climatic conditio</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year
2006
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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