No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43410%2F24%3A43925916" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43410/24:43925916 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/00027073:_____/24:N0000061 RIV/60460709:41320/24:101573
Result on the web
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17546" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17546</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17546" target="_blank" >10.1111/gcb.17546</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation
Original language description
With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6oC. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (MINUS SIGN 10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10611 - Plant sciences, botany
Result continuities
Project
Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Others
Publication year
2024
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Global Change Biology
ISSN
1354-1013
e-ISSN
1365-2486
Volume of the periodical
30
Issue of the periodical within the volume
10
Country of publishing house
US - UNITED STATES
Number of pages
16
Pages from-to
"e17546"
UT code for WoS article
001369111300001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85201130466