Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67179843%3A_____%2F10%3A00356797" target="_blank" >RIV/67179843:_____/10:00356797 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?
Original language description
The challenge of conservation biology is to make models that predict population dynamics and have a high probability of accurately tracking population. Here we tested whether the transition model is accurate enough to predict population persistence and size 13 years down and whether after 13 years populations had achieved a stable stage distribution. We modeled 6 small populations of an epiphytic orchid. We re-censused the populations 13 years after the first study and compared the structure of the populations to predictions based on the earlier census data. Effective population growth rates were similar to those expected except for one where the population went extinct. The prediction slightly overestimated the actual population growth rates of some populations. Elasticity analysis revealed that the adult stage is critical in the life cycle. The observed stage distributions of the populations were not stable at the beginning of the survey and neither were they after 13 years.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
EH - Ecology - communities
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/LC06073" target="_blank" >LC06073: Biodiversity Research Center</a><br>
Continuities
Z - Vyzkumny zamer (s odkazem do CEZ)
Others
Publication year
2010
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Biodiversity and Conservation
ISSN
0960-3115
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
19
Issue of the periodical within the volume
3
Country of publishing house
NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
Number of pages
14
Pages from-to
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UT code for WoS article
000274330800003
EID of the result in the Scopus database
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