Nowcasting sunshine number using logistic modeling
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F13%3A00389974" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/13:00389974 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-013-0240-1" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-013-0240-1</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-013-0240-1" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00703-013-0240-1</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Nowcasting sunshine number using logistic modeling
Original language description
In this paper, we present a formalized approach to statistical modeling of the sunshine number, binary indicator of whether the Sun is covered by clouds introduced previously by Badescu (Theor Appl Climatol 72:127?136, 2002). Our statistical approach isbased on Markov chain and logistic regression and yields fully specified probability models that are relatively easily identified (and their unknown parameters estimated) from a set of empirical data (observed sunshine number and sunshine stability number series). We discuss general structure of the model and its advantages, demonstrate its performance on real data and compare its results to classical ARIMA approach as to a competitor. Since the model parameters have clear interpretation, we also illustrate how, e.g., their inter-seasonal stability can be tested. We conclude with an outlook to future developments oriented to construction of models allowing for practically desirable smooth transition between data observed with different
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
BB - Applied statistics, operational research
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/LD12009" target="_blank" >LD12009: Advanced methods for energy production forecasting by photovoltaic systems using high resolution NWP models</a><br>
Continuities
Z - Vyzkumny zamer (s odkazem do CEZ)
Others
Publication year
2013
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
ISSN
0177-7971
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
120
Issue of the periodical within the volume
1-2
Country of publishing house
AT - AUSTRIA
Number of pages
11
Pages from-to
61-71
UT code for WoS article
000316689700006
EID of the result in the Scopus database
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