Informed Bayesian Survival Analysis
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F22%3A00560436" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/22:00560436 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-022-01676-9" target="_blank" >https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-022-01676-9</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-022-01676-9" target="_blank" >10.1186/s12874-022-01676-9</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Informed Bayesian Survival Analysis
Original language description
We overview Bayesian estimation, hypothesis testing, and model-averaging and illustrate how they benefit parametric survival analysis. We contrast the Bayesian framework to the currently dominant frequentist approach and highlight advantages, such as seamless incorporation of historical data, continuous monitoring of evidence, and incorporating uncertainty about the true data generating process. We illustrate the application of the Bayesian approaches on an example data set from a colon cancer trial. We compare the Bayesian parametric survival analysis and frequentist models with AIC/BIC model selection in fixed-n and sequential designs with a simulation study. In the example data set, the Bayesian framework provided evidence for the absence of a positive treatment effect on disease-free survival in patients with resected colon cancer. Furthermore, the Bayesian sequential analysis would have terminated the trial 13.3 months earlier than the standard frequentist analysis. In a simulation study with sequential designs, the Bayesian framework on average reached a decision in almost half the time required by the frequentist counterparts, while maintaining the same power, and an appropriate false-positive rate. Under model misspecification, the Bayesian framework resulted in higher false-negative rate compared to the frequentist counterparts, which resulted in a higher proportion of undecided trials. In fixed-n designs, the Bayesian framework showed slightly higher power, slightly elevated error rates, and lower bias and RMSE when estimating treatment effects in small samples. We have made the analytic approach readily available in RoBSA R package. The outlined Bayesian framework provides several benefits when applied to parametric survival analyses. It uses data more efficiently, is capable of greatly shortening the length of clinical trials, and provides a richer set of inferences.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10103 - Statistics and probability
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2022
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
BMC Medical Research Methodology
ISSN
1471-2288
e-ISSN
1471-2288
Volume of the periodical
22
Issue of the periodical within the volume
1
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
22
Pages from-to
238
UT code for WoS article
000852382600001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85138128795