The influence of meteorological factors on the risk of tick-borne encephalitis infection

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F23%3A00573945" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/23:00573945 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/75010330:_____/23:00014230

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.prolekare.cz/en/journals/epidemiology-microbiology-immunology/2023-2-15/the-influence-of-meteorological-factors-on-the-risk-of-tick-borne-encephalitis-infection-134590" target="_blank" >https://www.prolekare.cz/en/journals/epidemiology-microbiology-immunology/2023-2-15/the-influence-of-meteorological-factors-on-the-risk-of-tick-borne-encephalitis-infection-134590</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Result language

angličtina

Original language name

The influence of meteorological factors on the risk of tick-borne encephalitis infection

Original language description

OBJECTIVES:: The aim of this work was to analyze the relationship between new cases of clinical tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) and various meteorological and seasonal predictors. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The modelling is based on national data from the Czech Republic for the period 2001–2016 in daily resolution, namely on average temperatures, average relative air humidity and the number of TBE cases classified according to the date of the first symptoms. Four variants of a negative binomial model from the generalized additive model class are used. The basic model relates the occurrence of TBE to the lagged ambient daily average temperature and daily average relative air humidity and their interaction with the lag reflecting the incubation period and other factors. The lag value was estimated via the optimization procedure based on Akaike information criterion. The model also includes the effect of the season and the effect of the day of the week. To increase the biological plausibility, the basic model has been expanded to account for possible time-varying effects of meteorological variables and to incorporate multiple lags. RESULTS: The most statistically significant effect is the within-year seasonality and then the interaction of the temperature and relative air humidity. The relationship of both meteorological factors and their interactions vary throughout the activities season of the hostquesting Ixodes ricinus. This also changes the conditions of occurrence of the new clinical cases of TBE. The time-varying effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of TBE shows non-trivial changes within a year. In the period before the middle of the calendar year (around the week 22) the effect decreases, then it is followed by an increase until the week 35. CONCLUSION: Flexible models were developed with quantitatively characterized effects of temperature, air humidity and their interaction, with the delay of the effect estimated through the optimization process. Performance of the model with multiple lags was checked using independent data to verify the possibility of using the results to improve the prediction of the risk of clinical cases of TBE uprise.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10103 - Statistics and probability

Project

<a href="/en/project/GA22-24920S" target="_blank" >GA22-24920S: Links between weather, epidemics and seasonal mortality patterns</a><br>

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Epidemiologie, Mikrobiologie, Imunologie

ISSN

1210-7913

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

72

Issue of the periodical within the volume

2

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

11

Pages from-to

67-77

UT code for WoS article

001019477100001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85163108671