Predicting Spruce Taiga Distribution in Northeast Asia Using Species Distribution Models: Glacial Refugia, Mid-Holocene Expansion and Future Predictions for Global Warming

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985939%3A_____%2F23%3A00571580" target="_blank" >RIV/67985939:_____/23:00571580 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/60076658:12310/23:43906474

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/f14020219" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.3390/f14020219</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f14020219" target="_blank" >10.3390/f14020219</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Predicting Spruce Taiga Distribution in Northeast Asia Using Species Distribution Models: Glacial Refugia, Mid-Holocene Expansion and Future Predictions for Global Warming

Original language description

We use prognostic and retrospective species distribution models based on the Random Forest machine learning method to estimate the potential range change of the dominant taiga conifer Jezo spruce (Picea jezoensis (Siebold & Zucc.) Carrière) for the year 2070 climate warming scenarios and for past climate epochs–the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (~21,000 years before present) and the mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum (MHO) (~7000 years before the present) using the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 climate models. The current suitable climatic conditions for P. jezoensis are estimated to be 500,000 km2. Both climatic models show similar trends in past and future ranges but provide different quantitative areal estimates. During the LGM, the main part of the species range was located much further south than today at 35–45° N. Projected climate warming will cause a greater change in the distributional range of P. jezoensis than has occurred since the MHO. Overlapping climatic ranges at different times show that the Changbai Mountains, the central parts of the Japanese Alps, Hokkaido, and the Sikhote-Alin Mountains will remain suitable refugia for Jezo spruce until 2070. The establishment of artificial forest stands of P. jezoensis and intraspecific taxa in the future climate-acceptable regions may be important for the preservation of genetic diversity.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10618 - Ecology

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Forests

ISSN

1999-4907

e-ISSN

1999-4907

Volume of the periodical

14

Issue of the periodical within the volume

2

Country of publishing house

CH - SWITZERLAND

Number of pages

16

Pages from-to

219

UT code for WoS article

000939020600001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85149040847