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Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from a natural experiment

The result's identifiers

  • Result code in IS VaVaI

    <a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985998%3A_____%2F22%3A00556756" target="_blank" >RIV/67985998:_____/22:00556756 - isvavai.cz</a>

  • Alternative codes found

    RIV/00216208:11640/22:00568750

  • Result on the web

    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00870-1" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00870-1</a>

  • DOI - Digital Object Identifier

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00870-1" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00148-021-00870-1</a>

Alternative languages

  • Result language

    angličtina

  • Original language name

    Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from a natural experiment

  • Original language description

    Elections define representative democracies but also produce spikes in physical mobility if voters need to travel to polling places. In this paper, we examine whether large-scale, in-person elections propagate the spread of COVID-19. We exploit a natural experiment from the Czech Republic, which biannually renews mandates in one-third of Senate constituencies that rotate according to the 1995 election law. We show that in the second and third weeks after the 2020 elections (held on October 9-10), new COVID-19 infections grew significantly faster in voting compared to non-voting constituencies. A temporarily related peak in hospital admissions and essentially no changes in test positivity rates suggest that the acceleration was not merely due to increased testing. The acceleration did not occur in the population above 65, consistently with strategic risk-avoidance by older voters. Our results have implications for postal voting reforms or postponing of large-scale, in-person (electoral) events during viral outbreaks.

  • Czech name

  • Czech description

Classification

  • Type

    J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

  • CEP classification

  • OECD FORD branch

    50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Result continuities

  • Project

    <a href="/en/project/EF16_013%2F0001740" target="_blank" >EF16_013/0001740: SHARE-CZ+ National Research on Aging</a><br>

  • Continuities

    I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Others

  • Publication year

    2022

  • Confidentiality

    S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Data specific for result type

  • Name of the periodical

    Journal of Population Economics

  • ISSN

    0933-1433

  • e-ISSN

    1432-1475

  • Volume of the periodical

    35

  • Issue of the periodical within the volume

    1

  • Country of publishing house

    DE - GERMANY

  • Number of pages

    44

  • Pages from-to

    197-240

  • UT code for WoS article

    000696757000002

  • EID of the result in the Scopus database

    2-s2.0-85115048707