Nowcasting of deep convective clouds and heavy precipitation: Comparison study between NWP model simulation and extrapolation

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F17%3A00465462" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/17:00465462 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.003" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.003</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.003" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.003</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Nowcasting of deep convective clouds and heavy precipitation: Comparison study between NWP model simulation and extrapolation

Original language description

An evaluation of convective cloud forecasts performed with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model COSMO and extrapolation of cloud fields is presented using observed data derived from the geostationary satellite Meteosat Second Generation (MSG). The present study focuses on the nowcasting range (1-5 h) for five severe convective storms in their developing stage that occurred during the warm season in the years 2012-2013. Radar reflectivity and extrapolated radar reflectivity data were assimilated for at least 6 h depending on the time of occurrence of convection. Synthetic satellite imageries were calculated using radiative transfer model RTTOV v10.2, which was implemented into the COSMO model. NWP model simulations of IR10.8 μm and WV06.2 μm brightness temperatures (BTs) with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km were interpolated into the satellite projection and objectively verified against observations using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CORR) and Fractions Skill Score (FSS) values. Naturally, the extrapolation of cloud fields yielded an approximately 25% lower RMSE, 20% higher CORR and 15% higher FSS at the beginning of the second forecasted hour compared to the NWP model forecasts. On the other hand, comparable scores were observed for the third hour, whereas the NWP forecasts outperformed the extrapolation by 10% for RMSE, 15% for CORR and up to 15% for FSS during the fourth forecasted hour and 15% for RMSE, 27% for CORR and up to 15% for FSS during the fifth forecasted hour. The analysis was completed by a verification of the precipitation forecasts yielding approximately 8% higher RMSE, 15% higher CORR and up to 45% higher FSS when the NWP model simulation is used compared to the extrapolation for the first hour. Both the methods yielded unsatisfactory level of precipitation forecast accuracy from the fourth forecasted hour onward.n

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2017

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Atmospheric Research

ISSN

0169-8095

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

184

Issue of the periodical within the volume

February

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

11

Pages from-to

24-34

UT code for WoS article

000390499100003

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-84991628429