Temporal changes of heat-attributable mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, over 1982–2019

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F22%3A00558151" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/22:00558151 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/60460709:41330/22:91547

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095522001158?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095522001158?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101197" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101197</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Temporal changes of heat-attributable mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, over 1982–2019

Original language description

While previous research on historical changes in heat-related mortality observed decreasing trends over the recent decades, future projections suggest increasing impact of heat on mortality in most regions of the world. This study aimed to analyse temporal changes in temperature-mortality relationships in Prague, Czech Republic in the warm season (May–September), using a daily mortality time series from 1982 to 2019. To investigate possible effect of adaptation to increasing temperature, we divided the study period into four decades (1980s–2010s). We used conditional Poisson regression models to identify decade-specific relative risk of heat-related mortality and to calculate the annual number of heat-attributable deaths and the heat-attributable fraction of total warm season deaths. We estimated their trends over the whole study period by a generalized additive model with non-parametric smoothing spline. Our results showed that the unprecedentedly hot 2010s was associated with approximately twice as large relative risk of heat-related mortality than in previous decades. This resulted in the reversal of the trend in heat-attributable mortality in the 1990s and its increase during the last two decades. Our findings highlight the importance of further improvement of adaptation measures such as heat-and-health warning systems to protect the heat-susceptible population.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project

<a href="/en/project/GA22-24920S" target="_blank" >GA22-24920S: Links between weather, epidemics and seasonal mortality patterns</a><br>

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2022

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Urban Climate

ISSN

2212-0955

e-ISSN

2212-0955

Volume of the periodical

44

Issue of the periodical within the volume

Jul 22

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

101197

UT code for WoS article

000816035200007

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85131693417