Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate. A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F24%3A00601247" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/24:00601247 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://journals.lww.com/environepidem/fulltext/2024/10000/temporal_change_in_minimum_mortality_temperature.12.aspx" target="_blank" >https://journals.lww.com/environepidem/fulltext/2024/10000/temporal_change_in_minimum_mortality_temperature.12.aspx</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334" target="_blank" >10.1097/EE9.0000000000000334</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate. A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015
Original language description
Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time: however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10510 - Climatic research
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2024
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Environmental Epidemiology
ISSN
2474-7882
e-ISSN
2474-7882
Volume of the periodical
8
Issue of the periodical within the volume
5
Country of publishing house
US - UNITED STATES
Number of pages
10
Pages from-to
e334
UT code for WoS article
001350077000001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85206503397