Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F25%3A00638498" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/25:00638498 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/60460709:41330/25:105979

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412025004702?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412025004702?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2025.109719" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.envint.2025.109719</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature

Original language description

Background: The rise in hot nights over recent decades and projections of further increases due to climate change underscores the critical need to understand their impact. This knowledge is essential for shaping public health strategies and guiding adaptation efforts. Despite their significance, research on the implications of hot nights remains limited. Objective: This study estimated the association between hot-night excess (the sum of excess heat during the nighttime above a threshold) and duration (the percent of nighttime with a positive excess) based on hourly ambient temperatures and daily mortality in the warm season over multiple locations worldwide. Methods: We fitted time series regression models to mortality in 178 locations across 44 countries using a distributed lag non-linear model over lags of 0–3 days, controlling for daily maximum temperature and daily mean absolute humidity. Next, we used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool results and estimated attributable burdens. Results: We found a positive, increasing mortality risk with hot-night excess and duration. Assuming 0 as a reference, the pooled relative risks of death associated with extreme excess and duration, defined as the 90th percentile in each index, were both similar at 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.017, 1.036) and 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.013, 1.040). The overall estimated attributable fractions were also observed to be closely similar at 0.60 % (95 % CI, 0.09, 1.10 %) and 0.62 % (95 % CI, 0.00, 1.23 %), respectively. Discussion: This study provides new evidence that hot nights have a specific contribution to heat-related mortality risk. Modeling thermal characteristics’ sub-hourly impact on mortality during the night could improve decision-making for long-term adaptions and preventive public health strategies.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10510 - Climatic research

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Environment International

ISSN

0160-4120

e-ISSN

1873-6750

Volume of the periodical

203

Issue of the periodical within the volume

Sept.

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

11

Pages from-to

109719

UT code for WoS article

001563970900001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-105014258436