Model Comparison and Quantification of Statistical Uncertainties for Annual Maxima of Ground Snow Loads
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68407700%3A21610%2F15%3A00234725" target="_blank" >RIV/68407700:21610/15:00234725 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Model Comparison and Quantification of Statistical Uncertainties for Annual Maxima of Ground Snow Loads
Original language description
This paper studies the effect of statistical uncertainties on fully probabilistic models and examines the current practice in civil engineering that typically neglects these uncertainties. Frequentist and Bayesian approaches are applied to quantify parameter estimation and model selection uncertainties. Focusing on annual maxima of ground snow loads, representative fractiles for different models and methods are compared. Four distribution types are considered and model uncertainty is accounted by modelaveraging. The numerical results indicate that for small to medium sample sizes the effect of statistical uncertainties can be substantial and should be accounted for in reliability studies. For three-parameter distributions the models without statistical uncertainty may underestimate the 1000-year return period fractiles by 20% compared to the models which incorporate this uncertainty. The Bayesian paradigm offers a coherent and rational way to incorporate statistical uncertainties.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
D - Article in proceedings
CEP classification
JN - Civil engineering
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/GBP105%2F12%2FG059" target="_blank" >GBP105/12/G059: Cumulative time dependent processes in building materials and structures</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Others
Publication year
2015
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Article name in the collection
Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference ESREL 2015
ISBN
978-1-138-02879-1
ISSN
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e-ISSN
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Number of pages
8
Pages from-to
2667-2674
Publisher name
A. A. Balkema Publishers
Place of publication
Leiden
Event location
Zürich
Event date
Sep 7, 2015
Type of event by nationality
WRD - Celosvětová akce
UT code for WoS article
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