Future uncertainty in scenarios of ecosystem services provision: Linking differences among narratives and outcomes

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F18%3A00496521" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/18:00496521 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.005" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.005</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.005" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.005</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Future uncertainty in scenarios of ecosystem services provision: Linking differences among narratives and outcomes

Original language description

Future provision of ecosystem services (ES) has been increasingly analysed through the scenario approach to address uncertainties and to communicate them to stakeholders and decision-makers. Multiple uncertainty-related aspects of the scenario approach have been discussed in the literature, e.g. how uncertainty is accounted for in ES modelling processes. However, this contribution aims to address another uncertainty-related aspect of scenario analysis, exploring the relationship between the diversity of qualitative scenario narratives on the one hand and the diversity of their respective quantitative outcomes on the other. We build on a local-scale case study and present a semi-quantitative approach to compare scenario narratives and outcomes, based on participatory scenario planning and ES modelling. Our results show that different scenario narratives may lead to similar levels of modelled ES provision, and vice versa, that similar narratives may result in contrasting scenario outcomes. We use these findings to derive uncertainty-related insights, and discuss how these can help formulate landscape management decisions, resulting in desirable ES outcomes across a range of plausible futures. Finally, we discuss the need to apply both spatial and aspatial approaches to compare the convergence of scenario outcomes, and the implications for potential interpretation of the results by stakeholders and decision-makers.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2018

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Ecosystem services

ISSN

2212-0416

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

33

Issue of the periodical within the volume

SI

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

134-145

UT code for WoS article

000446521600004

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85048862092