Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F22%3A00566489" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/22:00566489 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/62156489:43410/22:43921873 RIV/60460709:41320/22:92893
Result on the web
<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16384" target="_blank" >https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16384</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16384" target="_blank" >10.1111/gcb.16384</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models
Original language description
Forest models are instrumental for understanding and projecting the impact of climate change on forests. A considerable number of forest models have been developed in the last decades. However, few systematic and comprehensive model comparisons have been performed in Europe that combine an evaluation of modelled carbon and water fluxes and forest structure. We evaluate 13 widely used, state-of-the-art, stand-scale forest models against field measurements of forest structure and eddy-covariance data of carbon and water fluxes over multiple decades across an environmental gradient at nine typical European forest stands. We test the models' performance in three dimensions: accuracy of local predictions (agreement of modelled and observed annual data), realism of environmental responses (agreement of modelled and observed responses of daily gross primary productivity to temperature, radiation and vapour pressure deficit) and general applicability (proportion of European tree species covered). We find that multiple models are available that excel according to our three dimensions of model performance. For the accuracy of local predictions, variables related to forest structure have lower random and systematic errors than annual carbon and water flux variables. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean provided overall more realistic daily productivity responses to environmental drivers across all sites than any single individual model. The general applicability of the models is high, as almost all models are currently able to cover Europe's common tree species. We show that forest models complement each other in their response to environmental drivers and that there are several cases in which individual models outperform the model ensemble. Our framework provides a first step to capturing essential differences between forest models that go beyond the most commonly used accuracy of predictions. Overall, this study provides a point of reference for future model work aimed at predicting climate impacts and supporting climate mitigation and adaptation measures in forests.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10611 - Plant sciences, botany
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2022
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Global Change Biology
ISSN
1354-1013
e-ISSN
1365-2486
Volume of the periodical
28
Issue of the periodical within the volume
23
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
23
Pages from-to
6921-6943
UT code for WoS article
000855012200001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85137483389