COVID-19 in North Africa: Comparative analysis by macroscopic growth laws
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F21%3A10439928" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/21:10439928 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=9Q3R2sE4kP" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=9Q3R2sE4kP</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0129183121500637" target="_blank" >10.1142/S0129183121500637</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
COVID-19 in North Africa: Comparative analysis by macroscopic growth laws
Original language description
A comparative analysis of the COVID-19 diffusion in North African countries, Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia has been carried out with the aim to study the effects of the containment efforts in different nations and the reliability of the predictions based on the data fits by macroscopic growth laws with a small number of free parameters. The comparison with data shows that the Coronavirus spreading has often different phases: an initial exponential behavior, followed by a Gompertz one and/or by a logistic phase, due to containment effort. The study of the growth phases permits to verify the restarting of the disease spreading after a stationarity period due to new outbreaks or to the weakness of the social control measures. The response of the National Health Systems to the emergency is discussed and some short-term predictions on the cumulative number of confirmed infected, on the hospitalizations and on the total number of deaths is done. The possible correlation with immigration in other Mediterranean Countries has been analyzed. Stable (or unstable) condition of the spreading can quickly change due to a stronger or weaker application of the lockdown measures and short-term predictions turn out to be reliable.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10300 - Physical sciences
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2021
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
International Journal of Modern Physics C
ISSN
0129-1831
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
32
Issue of the periodical within the volume
05
Country of publishing house
SG - SINGAPORE
Number of pages
23
Pages from-to
2150063
UT code for WoS article
000646958300009
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85100549795