Data analysis on Coronavirus spreading by macroscopic growth laws

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F20%3A10421810" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/20:10421810 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=byR-FPqEz0" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=byR-FPqEz0</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S012918312050103X" target="_blank" >10.1142/S012918312050103X</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Data analysis on Coronavirus spreading by macroscopic growth laws

Original language description

To evaluate the effectiveness of the containment on the epidemic spreading of the new Coronavirus disease 2019, we carry on an analysis of the time evolution of the infection in a selected number of different Countries, by considering well-known macroscopic growth laws, the Gompertz law, and the logistic law. We also propose here a generalization of Gompertz law. Our data analysis permits an evaluation of the maximum number of infected individuals. The daily data must be compared with the obtained fits, to verify if the spreading is under control. From our analysis, it appears that the spreading reached saturation in China, due to the strong containment policy of the national government. In Singapore a large growth rate, recently observed, suggests the start of a new strong spreading. For South Korea and Italy, instead, the next data on new infections will be crucial to understand if the saturation will be reached for lower or higher numbers of infected individuals.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10300 - Physical sciences

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2020

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

International Journal of Modern Physics C

ISSN

0129-1831

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

31

Issue of the periodical within the volume

7

Country of publishing house

SG - SINGAPORE

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

2050103

UT code for WoS article

000557738400014

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85086908570