Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11320%2F21%3A10439439" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11320/21:10439439 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=FHR2s8jcQ4" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=FHR2s8jcQ4</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.02.003" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.idm.2021.02.003</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading
Original language description
In all countries the political decisions aim to achieve an almost stable configuration with a small number of new infected individuals per day due to Covid-19. When such a condition is reached, the containment effort is usually reduced in favor of a gradual reopening of the social life and of the various economical sectors. However, in this new phase, the infection spread restarts and, moreover, possible mutations of the virus give rise to a large specific growth rate of the infected people. Therefore, a quantitative analysis of the regrowth pattern is very useful. We discuss a macroscopic approach which, on the basis of the collected data in the first lockdown, after few days from the beginning of the new phase, outlines different scenarios of the Covid-19 diffusion for longer time. The purpose of this paper is a demonstration-of-concept: one takes simple growth models, considers the available data and shows how the future trend of the spread can be obtained. The method applies a time dependent carrying capacity, analogously to many macroscopic growth laws in biology, economics and population dynamics. The illustrative cases of France, Italy and United Kingdom are analyzed. (C) 2021 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10300 - Physical sciences

Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2021
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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