STOCHASTIC TRAFFIC DEMAND PROFILE: INTERDAY VARIATION FOR GIVEN TIME AND DAY OF WEEK

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216305%3A26110%2F22%3APU147355" target="_blank" >RIV/00216305:26110/22:PU147355 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.vut.cz/uk/podpora-publikovani/identifikatory/orcid/registrace" target="_blank" >https://www.vut.cz/uk/podpora-publikovani/identifikatory/orcid/registrace</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.14311/CEJ.2022.04.0048" target="_blank" >10.14311/CEJ.2022.04.0048</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

STOCHASTIC TRAFFIC DEMAND PROFILE: INTERDAY VARIATION FOR GIVEN TIME AND DAY OF WEEK

Original language description

Traffic demand prediction is one of the major elements of traffic planning and modelling. Traffic surveys routinely estimate the profile of traffic demand on a certain road section, showing the expected evolution of the demand over a day or week. However, the actual demand fluctuates around this value on day-to-day basis and thus can exceed otherwise sufficient capacity and consequently cause congestion due to the capacity drop. This type of traffic demand variability has not yet been properly studied although it can play significant role in traffic modelling and engineering. The relevance of this variability is further increasing with the growing popularity of stochastic traffic models. This paper presents results of a statistical analysis of the demand variability in five-minute aggregation intervals. Normal, lognormal and gamma distributions all show reasonably well fit to the data for individual intervals and often do not differ on statistically significant level. Based on the count of the best fits, the lognormal distribution seems to be most suitable, while the gamma distribution is the most universal and with generally acceptable fit. There appears to be a pattern where certain distributions have better fit in different times of the day and week. The regularity and magnitude of demand probably both play a role in this, as well as the aggregation interval. Two simple models for modelling the variability are proposed for practical applications when there is not enough data to perform similar analysis.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

20100 - Civil engineering

Project

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Continuities

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2022

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

The Civil Engineering Journal

ISSN

1805-2576

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

31

Issue of the periodical within the volume

4

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

11

Pages from-to

636-646

UT code for WoS article

000907791700010

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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