Evaluation of GDP Growth Forecasts:Does Using Different Data Vintages Matter?

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F04274644%3A_____%2F16%3A%230000173" target="_blank" >RIV/04274644:_____/16:#0000173 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Evaluation of GDP Growth Forecasts:Does Using Different Data Vintages Matter?
Original language description
This paper deals with effect of different real-time data vintages (recent and first outturn) on accuracy of real GDP growth forecasts produced by main Czech and Slovak public authorities (ministries of finance, central banks). Firstly, variation in the real-time data itself was analysed, along with of multidimensional forecasting error evaluation (MAE, RMSE, MASE measures). Then, battery of statistical tests was applied in order to determine, whether the switch from first to recent real-time data affects forecasts´ accuracy in a significant manner (Wilcoxon Signed Rank test, Sign test) and whether it affects relative accuracy between individual institutions (Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann-Whitney U test). Our results show that while the change in underlying data affects forecasting accuracy in our sample (using recent data lead to higher errors), the changes were neither found statistically significant in strong majority of surveyed cases, nor affected the relative accuracy of involved institutions.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
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Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2016
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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