GDP FORECASTING BY CZECH INSTITUTIONS: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F04274644%3A_____%2F16%3A%230000181" target="_blank" >RIV/04274644:_____/16:#0000181 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
GDP FORECASTING BY CZECH INSTITUTIONS: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION
Original language description
This paper evaluates the accuracy of real GDP growth forecasts published in the period 1995– 2013 by two Czech institutions: the Ministry of Finance (MF) and the Czech National Bank (CNB). A two-stepped approach is adopted: first a battery of forecasting errors (MAE, RMSE, MASE) is calculated, complementary to evaluation papers already available. Then statistical analysis is carried out by comparing both MF and CNB forecasts with OECD, European Commission and consensus benchmarks (Kruskal-Wallis test), assessing the presence of systemic bias (Wilcoxon test) and determining their incremental improvement (Page trend test). The results show that although some error patterns might suggest performance deficiencies (i.e. during the recession periods), the accuracy of forecasts prepared by both the MF and CNB does not differ significantly from the benchmark forecasts; MF and CNB predictions do not contain systemic bias and their accuracy improves as the horizon shortens.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2016
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Prague Economic Papers : Quarterly Journal of Economic Theory and Policy
ISSN
1210-0455
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
26
Issue of the periodical within the volume
2
Country of publishing house
CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC
Number of pages
15
Pages from-to
155-169
UT code for WoS article
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EID of the result in the Scopus database
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