Evaluating Government Tax Revenue Forecasts: Czech and Slovak Cases

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F26138077%3A_____%2F14%3A%230000766" target="_blank" >RIV/26138077:_____/14:#0000766 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Evaluating Government Tax Revenue Forecasts: Czech and Slovak Cases
Original language description
The paper deals with the accuracy of tax revenue forecasts produced by the Czech and Slovak governments in the 2004-2013 period. Utilizing a combination of scale-dependent (AFE, RMSE), percentage (MAPE) as well as relative (MASE) error measures, a commonpattern of three distinctive phases was identified: (i) the growth period (2004-2006) with prudent under-shooting of the real revenues and relatively low errors, (ii) the recession period (2007-2010) with strong tendency to over-forecast and substantially higher errors and (iii) the stagnation period (2010-2013) with a gradual return to conservative under-shooting and reduction of errors to pre-recession level. Comparison of both countries´ accuracy showed that although the Czech forecasts generally achieved lower standard errors, the Slovak forecasts performed better versus the na?ve benchmark, offering higher added value in the more volatile environment. However, international comparison showed that both countries failed to successfu
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
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Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2014
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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