The accuracy of alternative GDP growth forecasts: Do they represent a credible alternative to the official ones?

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F26138077%3A_____%2F15%3A%230000765" target="_blank" >RIV/26138077:_____/15:#0000765 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0021" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0021</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0021" target="_blank" >10.1515/revecp-2015-0021</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

The accuracy of alternative GDP growth forecasts: Do they represent a credible alternative to the official ones?

Original language description

The paper deals with the accuracy of the real GDP growth forecasts produced by two Czech non-governmental institutions: the Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions (CMKOS) and the Czech Banking Association (CBA) in the years 2007- 2014 and 2011-2014respectively. Utilizing a research method composed of simple (AFE), scale-dependent (RMSE) as well as relative (MASE) error measures, we found out that (i) CMKOS predictions achieved a lower forecasting error on average, begin-ning with a notable overestimation in the first turnover point from growth to decline (2008-2009), yet followed by gradual improvement resulting in superior accuracy over set benchmarks (Ministry of Finance, Czech National Bank, OECD) in later years (2010-2014). The CBA predictions, on the other hand, exhibited (ii) a high level of interconnection with official bodies (MF, CNB), but with overall inferior forecasting accuracy, despite the shorter time frame (2011-2014). Overall, the study suggests that of the two

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_x - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)

CEP classification

AH - Economics

OECD FORD branch

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Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2015

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Národohospodářský obzor

ISSN

1213-2446

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

15

Issue of the periodical within the volume

3

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

36

Pages from-to

291-326

UT code for WoS article

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EID of the result in the Scopus database

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