Final look at GDP forecasting by Czech institutions

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F04274644%3A_____%2F21%3A%230000798" target="_blank" >RIV/04274644:_____/21:#0000798 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.ekf.vsb.cz/cerei/cs/aktualni-cislo/archiv/" target="_blank" >https://www.ekf.vsb.cz/cerei/cs/aktualni-cislo/archiv/</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
—

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Final look at GDP forecasting by Czech institutions
Original language description
This paper deals with the evaluation of Czech institutions’ (the Ministry of Finance and the Czech National Bank) real GDP growth forecasting performance between 1995 and 2015. Contrary to the author’s previous papers on this topic, the set-up was altered, in order to assess an 18-month-long annual prediction and set a third estimate as the real-time data input. Using a battery of three error measures (MAE, RMSE, MASE) augmented by the Wilcoxon and Kruskal–Wallis tests, we have found that the MF and the CNB forecasts do not contain a systemic bias. Also, despite some isolated performance deficiencies (i.e. during the recession periods), the accuracy of forecasts prepared by both the MF and the CNB does not differ significantly from the benchmark forecasts of international institutions. Our outcomes hence correspond with the results of previous studies, implying that the changed data set-up does not affect the predictive accuracy of both institutions
Czech name
—
Czech description
—

Project
—
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2021
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical
Ekonomická revue – Central European Review of Economic Issues
ISSN
1212-3951
e-ISSN
1805-9481
Volume of the periodical
2021
Issue of the periodical within the volume
24
Country of publishing house
CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC
Number of pages
7
Pages from-to
6-12
UT code for WoS article
—
EID of the result in the Scopus database
—

Similar results(10)