The vulnerability of endemic vertebrates in Sri Lanka to climate change
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F25%3A105927" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/25:105927 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2025.e03515" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2025.e03515</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2025.e03515" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.gecco.2025.e03515</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
The vulnerability of endemic vertebrates in Sri Lanka to climate change
Original language description
Rapid climate change and ongoing habitat destruction pose a serious threat to global biodiversity. Understanding how species shift their geographical distributions in response to climate change is important for planning conservation actions for the biodiversity of isolated islands like Sri Lanka. Here, we used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict current and future (by 2100) distributions of 233 vertebrate endemics to Sri Lanka under three general circulation models of the atmosphere (GCMs) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We used six bioclimatic layers, together with land use, human population, elevation, and the distance to water, as environmental factors for SDMs. Resultant maps were used to calculate the area of habitat (AOH) of each species. Using general linear mixed models, we identified a significant influence of GCM, SSP, and current elevation on the change in AOH. The southwestern wet zone and the montane areas of Sri Lanka were found to be the most suitable regions for the species currently and in the future. However, all climate change scenarios indicated endemic species extinctions, which may be proportionally fewer for mammals and birds, but are expected to occur for all SSPs in amphibians and reptiles, ranging from 1.4 % to 22.5 % of these taxa in SSP5. Also, species declines were specific and severe at higher elevations. Our study highlights the risk to montane endemic vertebrates, yet given the vulnerability of the wet zone to urbanization, even lowland endemic species face an uncertain future.
Czech name
—
Czech description
—
Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
—
OECD FORD branch
10619 - Biodiversity conservation
Result continuities
Project
—
Continuities
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Others
Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION
ISSN
2351-9894
e-ISSN
2351-9894
Volume of the periodical
59
Issue of the periodical within the volume
JUN 2025
Country of publishing house
NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
Number of pages
14
Pages from-to
—
UT code for WoS article
001437183300001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85218911355