European beewolf (Philanthus triangulum) will expand its geographic range as a result of climate warming

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62690094%3A18470%2F22%3A50019575" target="_blank" >RIV/62690094:18470/22:50019575 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-022-01987-z" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-022-01987-z</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01987-z" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10113-022-01987-z</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

European beewolf (Philanthus triangulum) will expand its geographic range as a result of climate warming

Original language description

Climate change is an important driver of the spread of apiary pests and honeybee predators. These impact on one of the economically most important pollinators and thus pose serious threats to the functioning of both natural ecosystems and crops. We investigated the impact of the predicted climate change in the periods 2040-2060 and 2060-2080 on the potential distribution of the European beewolf Philanthus triangulum, a specialized honeybee predator. We modelled its potential distribution using the MaxEnt method based on contemporary occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. Our model had an overall good performance (AUC = 0.864) and the threshold of occurrence probability, assessed as the point with the highest sum of sensitivity and specificity, was at 0.533. Annual temperature range (69.5%), mean temperature in the warmest quarter (12.4%), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (7.9%) were the principal bioclimatic variables significantly affecting the potential distribution of the European beewolf. We predicted the potential distribution shifts within two scenarios (optimistic RPC4.5 and pessimistic RCP8.5) and three Global Circulation Models (HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-SM-LR). Both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios showed that climate change will significantly increase the availability of European beewolf potential niches. Losses of potential niches will only affect small areas in southern Europe. Most of the anticipated changes for the period 2060-2080 will already have occurred in 2040-2060. The predicted range expansion of European beewolf suggests that occurrence and abundance of this species should be monitored.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2022

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Regional Environmental Change

ISSN

1436-3798

e-ISSN

1436-378X

Volume of the periodical

22

Issue of the periodical within the volume

4

Country of publishing house

DE - GERMANY

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

"Article Number: 129"

UT code for WoS article

000871054200001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85140250364