Implications of Climate Change for the Distribution of the Invasive Grass Genus Nassella in South Africa and Lesotho

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985939%3A_____%2F25%3A00641305" target="_blank" >RIV/67985939:_____/25:00641305 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2025.09.004" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2025.09.004</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2025.09.004" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.rama.2025.09.004</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Implications of Climate Change for the Distribution of the Invasive Grass Genus Nassella in South Africa and Lesotho
Original language description
Three South American grasses (Nassella neesiana, N. tenuissima and N. trichotoma) are naturalized in South Africa but not yet reported in Lesotho. N. tenuissima and N. trichotoma have been recognized as serious invaders since the 1970s. This study examined the key bioclimatic factors shaping their distribution, their current potential ranges, and projected future distributions under three carbon-emission scenarios for 2071–2100. Using nine bioclimatic predictors from the CHELSEA database, Maxent models were run with five global circulation models and three SSPs. Temperature-related variables, especially mean diurnal range, were most influential for all species, while precipitation in the driest month affected N. trichotoma. All three species could expand beyond their current range, though highly suitable areas may contract. The Maloti-Drakensberg region, including Lesotho, is predicted to become increasingly suitable, posing major risks to biodiversity and rangelands already degraded by overgrazing. Early detection and surveillance of potential Nassella incursions into Lesotho should therefore be prioritized.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10618 - Ecology

Project
<a href="/en/project/EF18_053%2F0017850" target="_blank" >EF18_053/0017850: Mobility 2020</a><br>
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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