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Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

The result's identifiers

  • Result code in IS VaVaI

    <a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F23%3A00564238" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/23:00564238 - isvavai.cz</a>

  • Alternative codes found

    RIV/60460709:41330/23:97251

  • Result on the web

    <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40599-x" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40599-x</a>

  • DOI - Digital Object Identifier

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x</a>

Alternative languages

  • Result language

    angličtina

  • Original language name

    Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

  • Original language description

    Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.

  • Czech name

  • Czech description

Classification

  • Type

    J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

  • CEP classification

  • OECD FORD branch

    10510 - Climatic research

Result continuities

  • Project

    <a href="/en/project/GA22-24920S" target="_blank" >GA22-24920S: Links between weather, epidemics and seasonal mortality patterns</a><br>

  • Continuities

    I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Others

  • Publication year

    2023

  • Confidentiality

    S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Data specific for result type

  • Name of the periodical

    Nature Communications

  • ISSN

    2041-1723

  • e-ISSN

    2041-1723

  • Volume of the periodical

    14

  • Issue of the periodical within the volume

    1

  • Country of publishing house

    US - UNITED STATES

  • Number of pages

    10

  • Pages from-to

    4894

  • UT code for WoS article

    001054501000010

  • EID of the result in the Scopus database

    2-s2.0-85168664107