Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F23%3A00564238" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/23:00564238 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/60460709:41330/23:97251
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40599-x" target="_blank" >https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40599-x</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality
Original language description
Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
—
OECD FORD branch
10510 - Climatic research
Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/GA22-24920S" target="_blank" >GA22-24920S: Links between weather, epidemics and seasonal mortality patterns</a><br>
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2023
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Nature Communications
ISSN
2041-1723
e-ISSN
2041-1723
Volume of the periodical
14
Issue of the periodical within the volume
1
Country of publishing house
US - UNITED STATES
Number of pages
10
Pages from-to
4894
UT code for WoS article
001054501000010
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85168664107