TC6: Report: Strategy for probabilistic life prediction

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68407700%3A21110%2F16%3A00302146" target="_blank" >RIV/68407700:21110/16:00302146 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
TC6: Report: Strategy for probabilistic life prediction
Original language description
The goal of this part of the project is to predict a spread of the number of cycles to failure based on the given description of all random inputs. Note that current simulation methodology does not cover the spread observed in engine test campaigns especially due to variations of operational conditions. Since the spread determines the minimum number of cycles that the hot gas wall can sustain without failure, it constitutes an important value in the design. The proposed methodology is based on propagation of all variations and uncertainties of the input values to the predicted life of the component. The result is the probability density function of the number of cycles to failure or its time-integral form, the cumulative distribution function. As the most general method, the Monte Carlo sampling (MCS) is employed in order to sample the PDFs of model response components and compute the structural life PDF. MCS requires large number of samples, therefore several surrogates of the model response are constructed. To explore the tail of the lifetime PDF, an adaptive refinement of the design of experiments is necessary. This induces additional evaluations of the FE model and define a recursive computational loop.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Publication year
2016
Confidentiality
C - Předmět řešení projektu podléhá obchodnímu tajemství (§ 504 Občanského zákoníku), ale název projektu, cíle projektu a u ukončeného nebo zastaveného projektu zhodnocení výsledku řešení projektu (údaje P03, P04, P15, P19, P29, PN8) dodané do CEP, jsou upraveny tak, aby byly zveřejnitelné.

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