Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F21%3A00546888" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/21:00546888 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196" target="_blank" >https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196" target="_blank" >10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change

Original language description

While the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress (measured in terms of return period between yields falling 15% below previous five year Olympic average yield) responds to changes of the underlying yield distributions under climate change. Relative distributions are used to capture differences in the entire yield distribution between baseline and climate change scenarios, and to further decompose them into changes in the location and shape of the distribution. The methodology is applied here for the case of rainfed wheat and grain maize across Europe using an ensemble of crop models under three climate change scenarios with simulations conducted at 25 km resolution. Under climate change, maize generally displayed shorter return periods of yield failures (with changes under RCP 4.5 between0.3 and 0 years compared to the baseline scenario) associated with a shift of the yield distribution towards lower values and changes in shape of the distribution that further reduced the frequency of high yields. This response was prominent in the areas characterized in the baseline scenario by high yields and relatively long return periods of failure. Conversely, for wheat, yield failures were projected to become less frequent under future scenarios (with changes in the return period of0.1 to +0.4 years under RCP 4.5) and were associated with a shift of the distribution towards higher values and a change in shape increasing the frequency of extreme yields at both ends. Our study offers an approach to quantify the changes in yield distributions that drive crop yield failures. Actual risk assessments additionally require models that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10510 - Climatic research

Project

<a href="/en/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2021

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Environmental Research Letters

ISSN

1748-9326

e-ISSN

1748-9326

Volume of the periodical

16

Issue of the periodical within the volume

10

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

17

Pages from-to

104033

UT code for WoS article

000704140500001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85117701182