Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F25%3A00619488" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/25:00619488 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/00216224:14310/25:00141912
Result on the web
<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period
Original language description
Despite continuous investigation, reasons for both the abandonment of Roman Britain around 410 CE, and the separate collapse of the Western Roman Empire in 476 CE remain unclear. Here, we use tree ring-based climate reconstructions and written documentary sources to show that a sequence of severe summer droughts from 364 to 366 CE not only contributed to prolonged harvest failures and food shortages, but also played a role in the 'Barbarian Conspiracy', a catastrophic military defeat for Roman Britain in 367 CE. In line with contemporary reports from the historian Ammianus Marcellinus, this pivotal event in pre-modern history coincided with anomalous coin hoarding, and a gradual depopulation of Roman villas and towns. Expanding our climate-conflict analysis from Roman Britain as a case study to the entire Roman Empire and the period 350-476 CE reveals clear linkages between years in which battles occurred and preceding warm and dry summers. Based on these findings, we develop a mechanistic model to explain the vulnerability of agrarian societies to climate variability, whereby prolonged droughts cause harvest failures and food shortages (dependant on societal resilience) that lead to systematic pressure, societal instability, and eventually outright conflict.
Czech name
—
Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
—
OECD FORD branch
10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project
<a href="/en/project/GA23-08049S" target="_blank" >GA23-08049S: Central European HYDRoclimate from Oak stable isotopes over the past 8000 years – HYDRO8</a><br>
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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