Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020699%3A_____%2F17%3AN0000084" target="_blank" >RIV/00020699:_____/17:N0000084 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/86652079:_____/18:00496478 RIV/60460709:41210/18:76748

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85040784370&origin=resultslist&sort=plf-f&src=s&sid=72b52645ca7c75b020e920ab400ceb55&sot=autdocs&sdt=autdocs&sl=18&s=AU-ID%2856459036100%29&relpos=0&citeCnt=0&searchTerm=" target="_blank" >https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85040784370&origin=resultslist&sort=plf-f&src=s&sid=72b52645ca7c75b020e920ab400ceb55&sot=autdocs&sdt=autdocs&sl=18&s=AU-ID%2856459036100%29&relpos=0&citeCnt=0&searchTerm=</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5421" target="_blank" >10.1002/joc.5421</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The main objective of this study was to project changes in the evolution of drought characteristics (frequency, duration and magnitude) during the 21st century in lowlands, highlands and mountainous regions in the Czech Republic (CR). We focused on the multi-scalar nature of droughts as a function of the variables that govern the balance of moisture during climate change, such as precipitation, which supplies moisture, and temperature, which modulates evapotranspiration. Thereby, this issue is addressed with two drought indices, i.e. the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI), for various lags (1, 3, 6, 12 and 24months). To assess the impact of climate change on drought characteristics, a set of eight regional climatemodels (RCMs) simulations were selected for further analysis driven by five different global circulation models (GCMs) carried out in the frame of Euro-CORDEX. Future drought changes were developed for the two representative concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the temporal evolution of the droughts, the monthly drought indices were calculated over the entire study period from 1961 to 2100. The SPEI showed a higher frequency in the categories of severe droughts and extreme droughts than the SPI, while the SPEI yielded fewer events in the extreme wet categories. The probability distribution of the SPEI-6 under the RCP8.5 scenario shifted more than one and a half standard deviations in lowlands at the end of the century, peaking at −1.65 (with a probability of 10.5%). This meant that severe droughts, according to the current climate criteria, will become the new norm in the period 2071–2100.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models

Popis výsledku anglicky

The main objective of this study was to project changes in the evolution of drought characteristics (frequency, duration and magnitude) during the 21st century in lowlands, highlands and mountainous regions in the Czech Republic (CR). We focused on the multi-scalar nature of droughts as a function of the variables that govern the balance of moisture during climate change, such as precipitation, which supplies moisture, and temperature, which modulates evapotranspiration. Thereby, this issue is addressed with two drought indices, i.e. the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI), for various lags (1, 3, 6, 12 and 24months). To assess the impact of climate change on drought characteristics, a set of eight regional climatemodels (RCMs) simulations were selected for further analysis driven by five different global circulation models (GCMs) carried out in the frame of Euro-CORDEX. Future drought changes were developed for the two representative concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the temporal evolution of the droughts, the monthly drought indices were calculated over the entire study period from 1961 to 2100. The SPEI showed a higher frequency in the categories of severe droughts and extreme droughts than the SPI, while the SPEI yielded fewer events in the extreme wet categories. The probability distribution of the SPEI-6 under the RCP8.5 scenario shifted more than one and a half standard deviations in lowlands at the end of the century, peaking at −1.65 (with a probability of 10.5%). This meant that severe droughts, according to the current climate criteria, will become the new norm in the period 2071–2100.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2017

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

International Journal of Climatology

ISSN

08998418

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

-

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

-

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

—

Kód UT WoS článku

000431999600063

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85040784370