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Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic

Identifikátory výsledku

  • Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

    <a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020699%3A_____%2F20%3AN0000096" target="_blank" >RIV/00020699:_____/20:N0000096 - isvavai.cz</a>

  • Výsledek na webu

    <a href="https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c082p033.pdf" target="_blank" >https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c082p033.pdf</a>

  • DOI - Digital Object Identifier

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01617" target="_blank" >10.3354/cr01617</a>

Alternativní jazyky

  • Jazyk výsledku

    angličtina

  • Název v původním jazyce

    Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic

  • Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

    Recent drought and a surge in days with weather conditions conducive to wildfire occurrence during 2015-2019 reminded the Czech Republic that it is not immune to this type of natural hazard. Although Central Europe has not been at the center of such events, observed climate data and climate projections suggest a tendency toward more years with wet and mild winters and dry and hot summers. To fill the existing knowledge gap, we used an ensemble of 9 fuel aridity metrics, including 3 dedicated fire weather indices, and evaluated their level of agreement with actual fire occurrence and their temporal trends. The analysis included peri-urban zones of the 36 largest cities and towns in the Czech Republic (home of 3.8 million inhabitants) and the 29 largest protected areas (covering 13.7% of the territory). Fire weather climatology, based on both the Fire Weather Index and the Forest Fire Danger Index, agreed well with the long-term frequency of fires both in peri-urban zones and within protected areas. Future projections based on regional and global model ensembles indicated a significant increase in fuel aridity and an increase in the area affected by fire-conducive conditions both around urban areas and within protected regions. In particular, the area affected by days with very high risk fire weather conditions is likely to increase significantly relative to the past 60 yr. However, the magnitude of the projected change depends to a large degree on the selected fire weather metric and whether RCM- or GCM-based scenarios are used.

  • Název v anglickém jazyce

    Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic

  • Popis výsledku anglicky

    Recent drought and a surge in days with weather conditions conducive to wildfire occurrence during 2015-2019 reminded the Czech Republic that it is not immune to this type of natural hazard. Although Central Europe has not been at the center of such events, observed climate data and climate projections suggest a tendency toward more years with wet and mild winters and dry and hot summers. To fill the existing knowledge gap, we used an ensemble of 9 fuel aridity metrics, including 3 dedicated fire weather indices, and evaluated their level of agreement with actual fire occurrence and their temporal trends. The analysis included peri-urban zones of the 36 largest cities and towns in the Czech Republic (home of 3.8 million inhabitants) and the 29 largest protected areas (covering 13.7% of the territory). Fire weather climatology, based on both the Fire Weather Index and the Forest Fire Danger Index, agreed well with the long-term frequency of fires both in peri-urban zones and within protected areas. Future projections based on regional and global model ensembles indicated a significant increase in fuel aridity and an increase in the area affected by fire-conducive conditions both around urban areas and within protected regions. In particular, the area affected by days with very high risk fire weather conditions is likely to increase significantly relative to the past 60 yr. However, the magnitude of the projected change depends to a large degree on the selected fire weather metric and whether RCM- or GCM-based scenarios are used.

Klasifikace

  • Druh

    J<sub>imp</sub> - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

  • CEP obor

  • OECD FORD obor

    10510 - Climatic research

Návaznosti výsledku

  • Projekt

  • Návaznosti

    I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Ostatní

  • Rok uplatnění

    2020

  • Kód důvěrnosti údajů

    S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku

  • Název periodika

    Climate Research

  • ISSN

    1616-1572

  • e-ISSN

  • Svazek periodika

    82

  • Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

    5.11.2020

  • Stát vydavatele periodika

    DE - Spolková republika Německo

  • Počet stran výsledku

    22

  • Strana od-do

    33-54

  • Kód UT WoS článku

    000651539200003

  • EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

    2-s2.0-85096744032