Improving design precipitation estimates by combining estimates from high-resolution adjusted radar data and long-term ombrographic measurements

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020699%3A_____%2F25%3AN0000049" target="_blank" >RIV/00020699:_____/25:N0000049 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809525006490?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809525006490?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108557" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108557</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Improving design precipitation estimates by combining estimates from high-resolution adjusted radar data and long-term ombrographic measurements

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Design precipitation estimates are crucial for hydrological modeling, flood risk assessment, and infrastructure planning. Traditional methods rely either on relatively sparse rain-gauge data or on areal but less reliable radar-derived precipitation data. We propose an innovative approach to improving the estimates by merging two design precipitation fields: (i) from adjusted high-resolution radar-derived intensities and (ii) from long-term ombrographic measurements. The proposed approach is demonstrated through application to Czechia on 1-h, 6-h, and 24-h design precipitation totals. Leave-one-out cross-validation identifies Empirical Bayesian Kriging of the ratios between ombrograph- and adjusted radar-derived design totals as the most effective merging method. The combined estimates offer enhanced spatial accuracy, better reflecting real spatial gradients of extreme precipitation. The resulting design precipitation fields reflect substantial spatial variability at shorter durations due to convective precipitation, whereas the highest 24-h design totals are concentrated in mountainous regions, consistent with large-scale circulation patterns driving prolonged stratiform rainfall. A comparison with previously developed datasets confirms the reliability of the new estimates, emphasizing the relevance of radar adjustments and regional frequency analysis. Moreover, the merging procedure increases underestimated radar-based short-term design totals, which highlights a key advantage of the proposed approach. The enhanced spatial resolution and reliability of the resulting design precipitation estimates enable more robust flood risk management, infrastructure design, and adaptation planning, particularly in this region with such diverse precipitation regimes.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Improving design precipitation estimates by combining estimates from high-resolution adjusted radar data and long-term ombrographic measurements

Popis výsledku anglicky

Design precipitation estimates are crucial for hydrological modeling, flood risk assessment, and infrastructure planning. Traditional methods rely either on relatively sparse rain-gauge data or on areal but less reliable radar-derived precipitation data. We propose an innovative approach to improving the estimates by merging two design precipitation fields: (i) from adjusted high-resolution radar-derived intensities and (ii) from long-term ombrographic measurements. The proposed approach is demonstrated through application to Czechia on 1-h, 6-h, and 24-h design precipitation totals. Leave-one-out cross-validation identifies Empirical Bayesian Kriging of the ratios between ombrograph- and adjusted radar-derived design totals as the most effective merging method. The combined estimates offer enhanced spatial accuracy, better reflecting real spatial gradients of extreme precipitation. The resulting design precipitation fields reflect substantial spatial variability at shorter durations due to convective precipitation, whereas the highest 24-h design totals are concentrated in mountainous regions, consistent with large-scale circulation patterns driving prolonged stratiform rainfall. A comparison with previously developed datasets confirms the reliability of the new estimates, emphasizing the relevance of radar adjustments and regional frequency analysis. Moreover, the merging procedure increases underestimated radar-based short-term design totals, which highlights a key advantage of the proposed approach. The enhanced spatial resolution and reliability of the resulting design precipitation estimates enable more robust flood risk management, infrastructure design, and adaptation planning, particularly in this region with such diverse precipitation regimes.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/SS02030040" target="_blank" >SS02030040: Predikce, hodnocení a výzkum citlivosti vybraných systémů, vlivu sucha a změny klimatu v Česku</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Atmospheric Research

ISSN

0169-8095

e-ISSN

1873-2895

Svazek periodika

330

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

11 October 2025

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

13

Strana od-do

nestrankovano

Kód UT WoS článku

001401236000001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85209403838