What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in low altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00020711%3A_____%2F22%3A10154892" target="_blank" >RIV/00020711:_____/22:10154892 - isvavai.cz</a>
Výsledek na webu
<a href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3501/2022/nhess-22-3501-2022.pdf" target="_blank" >https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3501/2022/nhess-22-3501-2022.pdf</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022" target="_blank" >10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022</a>
Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in low altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
Climate change impact on avalanches is ambiguous. Fewer, wetter, and smaller avalanches are expected in areas where snow cover is declining, while in higher-altitude areas where snowfall prevails, snow avalanches are frequently and spontaneously triggered. In the present paper, we (1) analyse trends in frequency, magnitude, and orientation of wet- and slab-avalanche activity during 59 winter seasons (1962-2021) and (2) detect the main meteorological and snow drivers of wet and slab avalanches for winter seasons from 1979 to 2020 using machine learning techniques - decision trees and random forest - with a tool that can balance the avalanche-day and non-avalanche-day dataset. In terms of avalanches, low to medium-high mountain ranges are neglected in the literature. Therefore we focused on the low-altitude Czech Krkonoše mountain range (Central Europe). The analysis is based on an avalanche dataset of 60 avalanche paths. The number and size of wet avalanches in February and March have increased, which is consistent with the current literature, while the number of slab avalanches has decreased in the last 3 decades. More wet-avalanche releases might be connected to winter season air temperature as it has risen by 1.8'C since 1979.The random forest (RF) results indicate that wet avalanches are influenced by 3 d maximum and minimum air temperature, snow depth, wind speed, wind direction, and rainfall. Slab-avalanche activity is influenced by snow depth, rainfall, new snow, and wind speed. Based on the balanced RF method, air-temperature-related variables for slab avalanches were less important than rain- and snow-related variables. Surprisingly, the RF analysis revealed a less significant than expected relationship between the new-snow sum and slab-avalanche activity. Our analysis allows the use of the identified wet- and slab-avalanche driving variables to be included in the avalanche danger level alerts. Although it cannot replace operational forecasting, machine learning can allow for additional insights for the decision-making process to mitigate avalanche hazard.
Název v anglickém jazyce
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in low altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Popis výsledku anglicky
Climate change impact on avalanches is ambiguous. Fewer, wetter, and smaller avalanches are expected in areas where snow cover is declining, while in higher-altitude areas where snowfall prevails, snow avalanches are frequently and spontaneously triggered. In the present paper, we (1) analyse trends in frequency, magnitude, and orientation of wet- and slab-avalanche activity during 59 winter seasons (1962-2021) and (2) detect the main meteorological and snow drivers of wet and slab avalanches for winter seasons from 1979 to 2020 using machine learning techniques - decision trees and random forest - with a tool that can balance the avalanche-day and non-avalanche-day dataset. In terms of avalanches, low to medium-high mountain ranges are neglected in the literature. Therefore we focused on the low-altitude Czech Krkonoše mountain range (Central Europe). The analysis is based on an avalanche dataset of 60 avalanche paths. The number and size of wet avalanches in February and March have increased, which is consistent with the current literature, while the number of slab avalanches has decreased in the last 3 decades. More wet-avalanche releases might be connected to winter season air temperature as it has risen by 1.8'C since 1979.The random forest (RF) results indicate that wet avalanches are influenced by 3 d maximum and minimum air temperature, snow depth, wind speed, wind direction, and rainfall. Slab-avalanche activity is influenced by snow depth, rainfall, new snow, and wind speed. Based on the balanced RF method, air-temperature-related variables for slab avalanches were less important than rain- and snow-related variables. Surprisingly, the RF analysis revealed a less significant than expected relationship between the new-snow sum and slab-avalanche activity. Our analysis allows the use of the identified wet- and slab-avalanche driving variables to be included in the avalanche danger level alerts. Although it cannot replace operational forecasting, machine learning can allow for additional insights for the decision-making process to mitigate avalanche hazard.
Klasifikace
Druh
J<sub>ost</sub> - Ostatní články v recenzovaných periodicích
CEP obor
—
OECD FORD obor
10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences
Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
—
Návaznosti
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2022
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název periodika
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
ISSN
1561-8633
e-ISSN
—
Svazek periodika
22
Číslo periodika v rámci svazku
10
Stát vydavatele periodika
DE - Spolková republika Německo
Počet stran výsledku
25
Strana od-do
3501-3525
Kód UT WoS článku
—
EID výsledku v databázi Scopus
—