Price Forecasting Accuracy of the OECD-FAO’s Agricultural Outlook and the European Commission DG AGRI’s Medium-Term Agricultural Outlook Report

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00027251%3A_____%2F21%3AN0000016" target="_blank" >RIV/00027251:_____/21:N0000016 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://online.agris.cz/archive/2021/03/08" target="_blank" >https://online.agris.cz/archive/2021/03/08</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7160/aol.2021.130308" target="_blank" >10.7160/aol.2021.130308</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Price Forecasting Accuracy of the OECD-FAO’s Agricultural Outlook and the European Commission DG AGRI’s Medium-Term Agricultural Outlook Report

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The OECD-FAO's Agricultural Outlook and the European Commission DG AGRI's Medium-term agricultural outlook report provide price forecasts. Users of these forecasts may be interested in their accuracy. This paper measures the accuracy for values forecast for the following year. These are very accurate as regards the AO EU price of poultry, the EC outlook price of common wheat and feed barley, but not so accurate as regards the EC outlookon beef prices. In some cases, discrepancies between the forecasts follow a systematic pattern. The paper also discovers how the OECD-FAO's outlook projections for a common wheat world representative price are changing from year to year. Usually they are positively correlated, but there are certain exceptions where their correlation is significantly negative. This means that the price projections of some commodities may vary dramatically.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Price Forecasting Accuracy of the OECD-FAO’s Agricultural Outlook and the European Commission DG AGRI’s Medium-Term Agricultural Outlook Report

Popis výsledku anglicky

The OECD-FAO's Agricultural Outlook and the European Commission DG AGRI's Medium-term agricultural outlook report provide price forecasts. Users of these forecasts may be interested in their accuracy. This paper measures the accuracy for values forecast for the following year. These are very accurate as regards the AO EU price of poultry, the EC outlook price of common wheat and feed barley, but not so accurate as regards the EC outlookon beef prices. In some cases, discrepancies between the forecasts follow a systematic pattern. The paper also discovers how the OECD-FAO's outlook projections for a common wheat world representative price are changing from year to year. Usually they are positively correlated, but there are certain exceptions where their correlation is significantly negative. This means that the price projections of some commodities may vary dramatically.

Druh

J_SC - Článek v periodiku v databázi SCOPUS

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10102 - Applied mathematics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics

ISSN

1804-1930

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

13

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

77-87

Kód UT WoS článku

—

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

999