Revisions to Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F13%3A10156075" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/13:10156075 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1275_244-61---rusnak.pdf" target="_blank" >http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1275_244-61---rusnak.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Revisions to Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Frequent revisions to GDP and its components cause policymakers to face considerable uncertainty about the current state of the economy. In this paper, we provide stylized facts about the magnitude of revisions to the Czech national accounts. Using dataover the 2003-2012 period, we find that the revisions are rather large. Revisions to real GDP growth are on average 1.4 for the annualized quarterly growth rate and 0.7 percentage points for the annual growth rate. Revisions to other variables are even larger: the average size of the revisions ranges from 1 to 12 percentage points for annualized quarterly growth rates and from 0.5 to 4 percentage points for annual growth rates. We investigate whether the revisions could have been predicted using the information available at the time of announcement. We find evidence for in-sample predictability for most of the variables, suggesting that the first releases of these variables are not efficient predictors of the actual values. In a real-ti

Název v anglickém jazyce

Revisions to Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability

Popis výsledku anglicky

Frequent revisions to GDP and its components cause policymakers to face considerable uncertainty about the current state of the economy. In this paper, we provide stylized facts about the magnitude of revisions to the Czech national accounts. Using dataover the 2003-2012 period, we find that the revisions are rather large. Revisions to real GDP growth are on average 1.4 for the annualized quarterly growth rate and 0.7 percentage points for the annual growth rate. Revisions to other variables are even larger: the average size of the revisions ranges from 1 to 12 percentage points for annualized quarterly growth rates and from 0.5 to 4 percentage points for annual growth rates. We investigate whether the revisions could have been predicted using the information available at the time of announcement. We find evidence for in-sample predictability for most of the variables, suggesting that the first releases of these variables are not efficient predictors of the actual values. In a real-ti

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GAP402%2F12%2F1993" target="_blank" >GAP402/12/1993: Kvantitativní modelování monetární a fiskální politiky po krizi</a><br>

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2013

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Finance a úvěr

ISSN

0015-1920

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

63

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

244-261

Kód UT WoS článku

000321815500002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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