Migration incentives and flows between Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine and the European Union: a forecasting model

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F14%3A10283075" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/14:10283075 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-4/1" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-4/1</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-4/1" target="_blank" >10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-4/1</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Migration incentives and flows between Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine and the European Union: a forecasting model

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The main objective of this paper is to elaborate econometric model forecasting the stocks of migrants from the Eastern European states (EES) in the Visegrad group (V4) countries and the European Union Member States (EU MS) in case of visa abolition. We use the data span of 2008-2012 and the econometric techniques known as Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), Panel data Least Squares (PLS) and General method of moments (GMM) to build three types of possible scenarios for migration from the Eastern European countries (Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine) to the V4 and to the EU as a whole in the next 35 years, i.e. until the year of 2050 with a simulated shock of visa abolition set at the year of 2015. Our results show that hypothetical visa abolition is not going to dramatically increase migration from the Eastern European countries in the EU Member States. Even though the immediate effect of visa abolition would probably result in the slight increase of migration stocks in the V4 and EU coun

Název v anglickém jazyce

Migration incentives and flows between Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine and the European Union: a forecasting model

Popis výsledku anglicky

The main objective of this paper is to elaborate econometric model forecasting the stocks of migrants from the Eastern European states (EES) in the Visegrad group (V4) countries and the European Union Member States (EU MS) in case of visa abolition. We use the data span of 2008-2012 and the econometric techniques known as Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), Panel data Least Squares (PLS) and General method of moments (GMM) to build three types of possible scenarios for migration from the Eastern European countries (Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine) to the V4 and to the EU as a whole in the next 35 years, i.e. until the year of 2050 with a simulated shock of visa abolition set at the year of 2015. Our results show that hypothetical visa abolition is not going to dramatically increase migration from the Eastern European countries in the EU Member States. Even though the immediate effect of visa abolition would probably result in the slight increase of migration stocks in the V4 and EU coun

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2014

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Economics and Sociology

ISSN

2071-789X

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

7

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

UA - Ukrajina

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

11-25

Kód UT WoS článku

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EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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