Smoking Czechs: Modelling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F19%3A10381719" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/19:10381719 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=kuynG6-Hol" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=kuynG6-Hol</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.685" target="_blank" >10.18267/j.pep.685</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Smoking Czechs: Modelling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We model the future tobacco consumption, size of smoking population and governmental tax revenues in the Czech Republic. The main model assumption states that smokers determine their future tobacco consumption behaviour as adolescents. Further assumptions make the model applicable to the data from the Czech National Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. Future teenage smoking rates and average consumption are the inputs to the model; consumption growth coefficients for each age category are estimated using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Several scenarios are built to model possible developments, including extreme cases. All our scenarios show that all model outcomes are going to grow until 2028 in a very similar pattern. In particular, the projected number of smokers in 2028 is by 4-8% higher than in 2013, the total daily tobacco consumption and tax revenue by 7-26%. This increase is induced by aging of large birth cohorts.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Smoking Czechs: Modelling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation

Popis výsledku anglicky

We model the future tobacco consumption, size of smoking population and governmental tax revenues in the Czech Republic. The main model assumption states that smokers determine their future tobacco consumption behaviour as adolescents. Further assumptions make the model applicable to the data from the Czech National Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. Future teenage smoking rates and average consumption are the inputs to the model; consumption growth coefficients for each age category are estimated using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Several scenarios are built to model possible developments, including extreme cases. All our scenarios show that all model outcomes are going to grow until 2028 in a very similar pattern. In particular, the projected number of smokers in 2028 is by 4-8% higher than in 2013, the total daily tobacco consumption and tax revenue by 7-26%. This increase is induced by aging of large birth cohorts.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50201 - Economic Theory

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Prague Economic Papers

ISSN

1210-0455

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

28

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

27

Strana od-do

3-29

Kód UT WoS článku

000460089100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

—