Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F22%3A10454640" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/22:10454640 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=QiQm5ntPUU" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=QiQm5ntPUU</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.100988" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.100988</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We analyze the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies in three regions that have different resource endowments. The existing literature on emerging economies remains inconclusive on how regional factors and resource characteristics affect the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. We show that (1) exports in Europe and Central Asia are driven by oil more than East Asia and the Pacific and that (2) policy makers in East Asia and the Pacific should be concerned about real exchange appreciation following a positive oil shock to mitigate losses in the non-oil export market. Analysis by resource endowment further reveals that, in less-resource-intensive economies, an oil price shock causes large variations in consumption and has a negative and persistent impact on the real gross domestic product (GDP). In mineral-exporting economies, real GDP and interest rates are driven largely by oil price shocks. The response of real GDP in mineral-exporting economies is short lived. In oil-exporting economies, only real GDP has a large variation in response to oil price shocks. Our findings highlight the need for customized policy responses to oil price shocks, depending on resource endowments, as we show that a &quot;one size fits all&quot; policy does not exist. (C) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile

Popis výsledku anglicky

We analyze the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies in three regions that have different resource endowments. The existing literature on emerging economies remains inconclusive on how regional factors and resource characteristics affect the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. We show that (1) exports in Europe and Central Asia are driven by oil more than East Asia and the Pacific and that (2) policy makers in East Asia and the Pacific should be concerned about real exchange appreciation following a positive oil shock to mitigate losses in the non-oil export market. Analysis by resource endowment further reveals that, in less-resource-intensive economies, an oil price shock causes large variations in consumption and has a negative and persistent impact on the real gross domestic product (GDP). In mineral-exporting economies, real GDP and interest rates are driven largely by oil price shocks. The response of real GDP in mineral-exporting economies is short lived. In oil-exporting economies, only real GDP has a large variation in response to oil price shocks. Our findings highlight the need for customized policy responses to oil price shocks, depending on resource endowments, as we show that a &quot;one size fits all&quot; policy does not exist. (C) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50201 - Economic Theory

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GX19-26812X" target="_blank" >GX19-26812X: Excelence v ekonomickém výzkumu energetické efektivity a modelování dopadů - FE3M</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Economic Systems

ISSN

0939-3625

e-ISSN

1878-5433

Svazek periodika

46

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

100988

Kód UT WoS článku

000895357000003

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85131540295