When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11230%2F23%3A10449025" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11230/23:10449025 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=w_LCG6DfHZ" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=w_LCG6DfHZ</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41308-022-00185-5" target="_blank" >10.1057/s41308-022-00185-5</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Several central banks have leaned against the wind in the housing market by increasing the policy rate preemptively to prevent a bubble. Yet the empirical literature provides mixed results on the impact of short-term interest rates on house prices: the estimated semi-elasticities range from -12 to positive values. To assign a pattern to these differences, we collect 1,555 estimates from 37 individual studies that cover 45 countries and 72 years. We then relate the estimates to 39 characteristics of the financial system, business cycle, and estimation approach. Our main results are threefold. First, the mean reported estimate is exaggerated by publication bias, because insignificant results are underreported. Second, inclusion of controls correlated with policy rates (credit or money supply) decreases the estimated effects of policy rates on house prices. Third, the effects are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and generally later in the cycle when the yield curve is flat and house prices enter an upward spiral.

Název v anglickém jazyce

When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis

Popis výsledku anglicky

Several central banks have leaned against the wind in the housing market by increasing the policy rate preemptively to prevent a bubble. Yet the empirical literature provides mixed results on the impact of short-term interest rates on house prices: the estimated semi-elasticities range from -12 to positive values. To assign a pattern to these differences, we collect 1,555 estimates from 37 individual studies that cover 45 countries and 72 years. We then relate the estimates to 39 characteristics of the financial system, business cycle, and estimation approach. Our main results are threefold. First, the mean reported estimate is exaggerated by publication bias, because insignificant results are underreported. Second, inclusion of controls correlated with policy rates (credit or money supply) decreases the estimated effects of policy rates on house prices. Third, the effects are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and generally later in the cycle when the yield curve is flat and house prices enter an upward spiral.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50201 - Economic Theory

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

IMF Economic Review

ISSN

2041-4161

e-ISSN

2041-417X

Svazek periodika

71

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

36

Strana od-do

538-573

Kód UT WoS článku

000850748700001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85137578018