Continuous simulation for computing design hydrographs for water structures

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11310%2F17%3A10382661" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11310/17:10382661 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00020711:_____/17:00004574

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11204" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11204</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11204" target="_blank" >10.1002/hyp.11204</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Continuous simulation for computing design hydrographs for water structures

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The contribution discusses the problems with modelling design floods for water structures. The statistical extrapolations of observed flood series of, for example, 80 years &quot;only&quot; to the annual exceedance probability AEP = 0.01 is difficult due to the large variability in extreme values. For large dams, however, the AEP = 0.001 or 0.0001 is required. Most of the uncertainties in hydrological modelling are epistemic (uncertainties in model structure, model parameters, inputs, calibration data, and in measurements) and moreover some measurements can be disinformative. With powerful computers, it is now possible to produce very long series (100 to100,000 years in hourly time step) using precipitation and temperatures computed with a weather model. Within the framework of the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) many (thousands) of such continuous simulations are produced and compared to the observed historical data. According to Keith Beven&apos;s Manifesto for the equifinality thesis the differences between modelled and observed values should not be larger than some limits of acceptability based on what is known about errors in the input and output observations used for model evaluation (e.g., for flow the current metering data are used). The unacceptable realisations are rejected. We have been working with the frequency version of TOPMODEL in various versions according to the unique characteristics of each catchment. Design hydrographs for water structures are then extracted from the acceptable realisations. The continuous simulation with uncertainty estimation seems nowadays the most promising method of computing design hydrographs for important water structures, even if issues associated with epistemic uncertainty of model assumptions remain.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Continuous simulation for computing design hydrographs for water structures

Popis výsledku anglicky

The contribution discusses the problems with modelling design floods for water structures. The statistical extrapolations of observed flood series of, for example, 80 years &quot;only&quot; to the annual exceedance probability AEP = 0.01 is difficult due to the large variability in extreme values. For large dams, however, the AEP = 0.001 or 0.0001 is required. Most of the uncertainties in hydrological modelling are epistemic (uncertainties in model structure, model parameters, inputs, calibration data, and in measurements) and moreover some measurements can be disinformative. With powerful computers, it is now possible to produce very long series (100 to100,000 years in hourly time step) using precipitation and temperatures computed with a weather model. Within the framework of the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) many (thousands) of such continuous simulations are produced and compared to the observed historical data. According to Keith Beven&apos;s Manifesto for the equifinality thesis the differences between modelled and observed values should not be larger than some limits of acceptability based on what is known about errors in the input and output observations used for model evaluation (e.g., for flow the current metering data are used). The unacceptable realisations are rejected. We have been working with the frequency version of TOPMODEL in various versions according to the unique characteristics of each catchment. Design hydrographs for water structures are then extracted from the acceptable realisations. The continuous simulation with uncertainty estimation seems nowadays the most promising method of computing design hydrographs for important water structures, even if issues associated with epistemic uncertainty of model assumptions remain.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10508 - Physical geography

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA13-32133S" target="_blank" >GA13-32133S: Retenční potenciál pramenných oblastí ve vztahu k hydrologickým extrémům</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2017

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Hydrological Processes

ISSN

0885-6087

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

31

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

13

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

2320-2329

Kód UT WoS článku

000403906900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85019929130