Trend forecasting for waste generation with structural break

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11310%2F20%3A10417242" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11310/20:10417242 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216305:26210/20:PU136587

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=DngBmWQXQR" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=DngBmWQXQR</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121814" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121814</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Trend forecasting for waste generation with structural break

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

For waste management planning, the adequate estimation of future waste production is crucial. Within waste production forecasting it is necessary to tackle with several challenges. The waste production data often consists of annual short time-series, but prediction horizon considers long-term estimation. Trend analysis seems to be a suitable approach for modelling waste production and its extrapolation. A methodology for forecasting waste generation based on historical data with a structural break is presented. To apply the approach, it is necessary to determine the estimation of separation potential. The principle is based on the idea of credibility theory where information from all territories is combined. Experience from other territories, which are more advanced in separation development, is used for forecasting. Finally, the population projection is taken into account to obtain information on absolute waste production. The case study is devoted to the forecasting of bio-waste production at the microregional level in the Czech Republic. There has been revealed an essential impact when population forecasting was included in the model. The increase in the average bio-waste production for microregions is expected. It will grow from 67 kg/cap/year in 2017 to 156 kg/cap/year in 2030. In 2030, most micro-regions would reach their potential based on this forecasting. (c) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Trend forecasting for waste generation with structural break

Popis výsledku anglicky

For waste management planning, the adequate estimation of future waste production is crucial. Within waste production forecasting it is necessary to tackle with several challenges. The waste production data often consists of annual short time-series, but prediction horizon considers long-term estimation. Trend analysis seems to be a suitable approach for modelling waste production and its extrapolation. A methodology for forecasting waste generation based on historical data with a structural break is presented. To apply the approach, it is necessary to determine the estimation of separation potential. The principle is based on the idea of credibility theory where information from all territories is combined. Experience from other territories, which are more advanced in separation development, is used for forecasting. Finally, the population projection is taken into account to obtain information on absolute waste production. The case study is devoted to the forecasting of bio-waste production at the microregional level in the Czech Republic. There has been revealed an essential impact when population forecasting was included in the model. The increase in the average bio-waste production for microregions is expected. It will grow from 67 kg/cap/year in 2017 to 156 kg/cap/year in 2030. In 2030, most micro-regions would reach their potential based on this forecasting. (c) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50402 - Demography

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Cleaner Production

ISSN

0959-6526

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

266

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1 September 2020

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

121814

Kód UT WoS článku

000552362200011

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85085108933