The age structure of cases as the key of COVID-19 severity: Longitudinal population-based analysis of European countries during 150 days

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F00216208%3A11310%2F22%3A10437059" target="_blank" >RIV/00216208:11310/22:10437059 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=KVknI8t_J_" target="_blank" >https://verso.is.cuni.cz/pub/verso.fpl?fname=obd_publikace_handle&handle=KVknI8t_J_</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/14034948211042486" target="_blank" >10.1177/14034948211042486</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The age structure of cases as the key of COVID-19 severity: Longitudinal population-based analysis of European countries during 150 days

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Aims: Over a million confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) across 16 European countries were observed during the first wave of the pandemic. Epidemiological measures like the case fatality rate (CFR) are generally used to determine the severity of the illness. The aim is to investigate the impact of the age structure of reported cases on the reported CFR and possibilities of its demographic adjustment for a better cross-country comparison (age-standardized CFRs, time delay between cases detection and death). Methods: This longitudinal study uses prospective, population-based data covering 150 days, starting on the day of confirmation of the 100th case in each country. COVerAGE-DB and the Human Mortality Database were used in this regard. The age-standardized CFRs were calculated with and without the time delay of the number of deaths after the confirmation of the cases. Results: The observed decline in the CFRs at the end of the first wave is partly given by the changes in the age structure of confirmed cases. Using the adjusted (age-standardized) CFRs with time delay, the risk of death among confirmed cases is much more stable in comparison to crude (observed) CFRs. Conclusions: Preventing the spread of COVID-19 among the elderly is an important way to positively influence the overall fatality rate, decrease the number of deaths, and not overload the health systems. The crude CFRs (still often presented) are not sufficient for a proper evaluation of the development across populations nor as a means of identifying the influencing factors.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The age structure of cases as the key of COVID-19 severity: Longitudinal population-based analysis of European countries during 150 days

Popis výsledku anglicky

Aims: Over a million confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) across 16 European countries were observed during the first wave of the pandemic. Epidemiological measures like the case fatality rate (CFR) are generally used to determine the severity of the illness. The aim is to investigate the impact of the age structure of reported cases on the reported CFR and possibilities of its demographic adjustment for a better cross-country comparison (age-standardized CFRs, time delay between cases detection and death). Methods: This longitudinal study uses prospective, population-based data covering 150 days, starting on the day of confirmation of the 100th case in each country. COVerAGE-DB and the Human Mortality Database were used in this regard. The age-standardized CFRs were calculated with and without the time delay of the number of deaths after the confirmation of the cases. Results: The observed decline in the CFRs at the end of the first wave is partly given by the changes in the age structure of confirmed cases. Using the adjusted (age-standardized) CFRs with time delay, the risk of death among confirmed cases is much more stable in comparison to crude (observed) CFRs. Conclusions: Preventing the spread of COVID-19 among the elderly is an important way to positively influence the overall fatality rate, decrease the number of deaths, and not overload the health systems. The crude CFRs (still often presented) are not sufficient for a proper evaluation of the development across populations nor as a means of identifying the influencing factors.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50402 - Demography

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Scandinavian Journal of Public Health

ISSN

1403-4948

e-ISSN

1651-1905

Svazek periodika

50

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

6

Stát vydavatele periodika

NO - Norské království

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

738-747

Kód UT WoS článku

000736598000001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85122155115